When I was asked to write this article I did not know who would be occupying the White House for the next four years.

In June of 1949 the DOW Jones stood at about 167 points and was rising; in January of 1960 it was 640, on October 2, 1972 it hit a record high of 1,020 points. For the most part, from 1960 to 1982, the DOW Jones was going through typical up and down cycles. Periods of recessions were followed by periods of expansions. Since 1960 there were 4 recessions 1960, 69, 73, 81. For two decades the DOW Jones hung around 800 points, up until the computer revolution of the 1980's. From 1982 we have witness relentless rises, and a  record high of 14,093 in 2007

During Kennedy's election campaign, he charged that under Eisenhower and the Republican Party , the United States was falling behind and he, as President, would "get America moving again."

In his acceptance speech Kennedy stated: "We stand today on the verge of a new frontier- the frontier of the 1960's, a frontier of unknown opportunities and perils- a frontier of unfulfilled hopes and threats."

I have read headlines from the 1960 presidential election and they are strikingly similar with what we observed during the 2008 presidential campaign. I believe that we are experiencing a ""déjà vu", this is familiar rhetoric.

For the Real Estate Industry it will make a little difference who will occupy the White House for the next 4 years. One thing is clear;  taxes will most likely go up. Our last economic expansion which started in 2001 was fueled by cheap credits.  We have borrowed heavily. As of February 2008, the national debt equated to $33,000 per capita or $60,100 per head of the U.S. working population.

According to a J.P. Morgan Chase forecast, we will see 3 quarters of recession followed by 12 quarters of slow growth. BLS reports "the median annual earnings, including commissions, of salaried real estate sales agents were $39,760 in May 2006. The middle 50 percent earned between $26,790 and $65,270 a year. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $20,170, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $111,500.

 Median annual earnings, including commissions, of salaried real estate brokers were $60,790 in May 2006. The middle 50 percent earned between $37,800 and $102,180 a year.  Many real estate brokers and sales agents worked part time, combining their real estate activities with other careers. About 61 percent of real estate brokers and sales agents were self-employed. Real estate is sold in all areas, but employment is concentrated in large urban areas and in rapidly growing communities. Employment of real estate brokers and sales agents is expected to grow 11 percent during the 2006-16 projection decades."

I would argue that BLS fails to recognize the most recent trend. In the past, employment was growing because of the accessibility of low-cost credits and unprecedented economical expansion  partially because of population growth. However, in the future we will see a number of agents and brokers decline because small businesses will be forced to consolidate into larger ones. Improvements in productivity, innovations and advancements in technology will make it possible for each agent to sell more. Stiffer completion and higher entry level (both financial and technological) into RE realm will lead to less number of agents and higher income per agents.

The availability of computers and proliferation of the Ethernet is creating a  new paradigm: "Ethernet search-Ethernet tour-Agent demonstration-Ethernet mortgage-Ethernet closing".  In this new and brave cyber world, the agents with the biggest technological edge will win. It means new customer relations. It will be cyber Real Estate world with an increasingly larger budget to spend on Ethernet marketing, lead generation, office automations, SEO, etc. It also means a mobile world. We will see more innovations with  real estate applications for digital cameras and smart phones, with a wider acceptance of smart phones.

Although I do not have a crystal ball, it is safe to predict that after a few dormant quarters we will return to periods of fast growth.  Prices of properties have declined substantially, making many areas look very attractive now. Immediately after the buying period, the public will regain confidence and recessionary fears will subside; we will see frantic buying.  I have mentioned on a few occasions at PropertyMinder's blog posts that prices of oil and other commodities most likely will continue to slide down and may stay low for some time. This undoubtedly will have a positive effect on core US industries including construction, and will help maintain a high employment rate and stimulate consumer spending.

The United States has had public debt since its inception. Between 1980 and 1990, the debt more than tripled. By the end of 2008, the total U.S. federal debt will pass the $10 trillion mark. This is about $33,000 per capita. Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and similar obligations, this figure rises to a total of $60 trillion, or $500,000 per household.

During the recession time, it is risky for the government to reduce spending. Reduction of spending may lead to deeper recession; therefore the next President will have very limited choices, they are either to increase taxes or reduce spending.  And I believe that the new cabinet will do both.  Some government programs will be cut, and some form of tax increase will be expected.  RE industry is one of the pillars of the US economy, therefore the government will try hard to jump start it by continuing to offer low interest rates or some other incentives.

The unemployment rate among agents and brokers will be at a low of about 4%. New exciting opportunities in RE industry will be discovered on the junction between high tech selling and marketing, and old fashion salesmanship.

In conclusion, the next President will have very little effect on RE industry's health. What  fueled the unprecedented rise of the stock market during the past 25 years were innovations, proliferation of computer technologies and Ethernet. That in turn helped RE industry to grow. Within the next decade, I believe that we will see another expansion phase in our ever cyclic economy due to new discoveries and innovations with technological break throughs.

Boris Gruzman, CEO 

According to RealtyTrac®, more than 272,000 homes in United States received at least one foreclosure-related notice in July 2008. This is up 55% from the same month, a year ago. RealtyTrac® reports that as many as 750,000 foreclosed homes are in their database of homes for sale, i.e. 17% from the 4.5 million U.S. homes that were up for sale in 2008.

To deal with the financial crisis, lenders are requiring larger down payment and higher credit score, squeezing many home buyers out of owning a home - even though prices have fallen.

What does this latest trend mean for the future of Real Estate?

Where there is blood, there is opportunity. As Sr. Winston Churchill once said, a pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.

The reality is that real estate market has always bounced back and reached new heights.

The media today is focused on the present national and worldwide economic crisis, totally ignoring new opportunities which are about to make a very significant positive impact on the market as it recovers from the current slump", said Boris Gruzman, CEO and President at PropertyMinder, Inc.

First and foremost we are in the middle of a global, demographical shift. In 2006, almost 500 million people worldwide were 65 and older. By 2030, individuals 65 and older are projected to increase to 1 billion - equaling one out of 8 of the earth inhabitants.

For the Real Estate industry, this means a growing retiring market. Baby boomers are retiring every day and always looking for a high quality Burgan-priced retirement properties.

While aging baby boomers are expected to look for retirement homes, the new Generation X and emerging Generation Y are taking their place for a first home and investment home markets. This is a great opportunity for tech-savvy agents with Internet marketing skills.

Who are these new buyers and what do they demand?

Gen-Xers do not read "Just Listed" post cards and other junk mails. They no longer care about the brand and the size of your car.  These highly educated, technology savvy buyers  in their 30's and 40^'s are seeking your expertise.

So, how will we survive the market downturn and prepare for a rapid growth?

The answer is "Cut your expenses, adopt the latest technology and learn new marketing skills", advised Aric Kazarnovsky, Executive Vice President at PropertyMinder, Inc.  Here is Aric's recipe for survival.

1. Replace expensive and ineffective traditional marketing with more effective new marketing concepts. There are a lot of new ways to improve your visibility and increase your lead production at a fraction of the traditional marketing cost. Learn the iMarketing techniques, embrace low cost search engine advertising, Craigslist , social media, listing syndication, mobile technology and many other opportunities to cut cost and extend your reach. For more bright ideas, attend  a PropertyMinder free iMARKETING Seminar. Visit http://www.propertyminder.com/seminars_realtors  for a schedule of upcoming seminars near you.

2. Save your gas and car maintenance. Make your buyers preview homes and learn about their dream neighborhood without leaving their home or work by using your convenient and "fully loaded" consumer centric website. Visit PropertyMinder, Inc. and learn about our AccelerAgent productivity and marketing technology.  

3. Value your time. In this unpredictable market, many agents are unable to upgrade their skills. Take some time and learn new marketing concepts for yourself. Visit TECH-MAR Clinics and learn about our web-based marketing clinic for Real Estate professionals.

Aric Kazarnovsky, Executive VP

Part Two: Where to find customers during turbulent times

Over the past few weeks each time I've read newspaper, listen to car radio or watched TV I was left with an impression that "Armageddon" is upon us. Bad news bombards us from every corner of universe from every TV and computer screens, print media and car or TV speakers.  Financial crisis is the most talked about topic of discussions from the board room to the bedroom.   Today's head line on Yahoo.com reads: "The Commerce Department reported Wednesday retail sales decreased 1.2 percent last month, nearly double the 0.7 percent drop that had been expected. It was the biggest decline since retail sales fell by 1.4 percent in August 2005".   I don't have a crystal ball and I can not predict the future, but I despise those who preach doomsday, not so long ago they were of opposite view predicting continues rise of house prices and global prosperity and growth for US economy in particular. I did not believe them then and I do not believe them now.

To be right most of the time in forecasting weather in LA I do not need to be a weather man. All that I need is to spot the trend, and in LA it is sunny most of the time. If you bet red on the roulette table you will be right 49% of the time, which of course is a sure way to go broke.  Moral of the story: "Do not believe every forecast you read, do not believe every so call expert, they do not know any better that you or I."  

A Few days ago the market rebounded with a vengeance rising almost 1000 points, biggest one day rise in DOW 130+ year's history. How many of you took advantage of it? According to some polls only 14% of people did, while 86% missed that one in a life time opportunity. How often do you think you will be presented with such fantastic opportunity, in my opinion not very often?   Sorry this blog was not intended for discussion about "get rich quick on stock market" but rather was some thoughts and prelude to "How to get customers during turbulent times"

Few days ago I was leisurely strolling down town Los Gatos, CA. I could not help myself but to notice that restaurants were busier that ever. Wow, all this talk about recession, depression, collapsing banks and economy slow down and yet I could not walk into a restaurant without a reservation. Needless to say I was surprised. Perhaps "bad" news has not percolated into these people's minds, or perhaps the local economy is fueled by good quarterly reports from Intel, Google, and Apple Computer and like I do not now?

But what I do know is that just about every home owner has car.  Did you know that if you combine your car and house insurance usually you will save money? (My insurance does and it saves me a lot)  So why not get together with insurance broker or agent. It can be beneficial for both of you. Offer a cross marketing agreement with your insurance broker or agent, place a link or even better small advertisement on their site. Make it reciprocal to your site, its win-win for both of you.  We at PropertyMinder will facilitate necessary changes on your web site.

We as "homo sapiens" love to be treated nice, we love special attention etc.  We love referrals. What's more when I go to a restaurant or visit doctor, shop for new car or buying jewelry I always ask: "Do you know anyone there, is he or she good?" You need referrals from other business.

Visit your local upscale dealerships: BMW, Mercedes, Lexus, Cadillac, Porsche, Audi, Lincoln, etc. Arrange a meeting with top sales consultants. Help them - they will help you. Ask for referrals, be reciprocal. May be they will let you put your web link on there site. Do so for top 10-20% of reputable small and medium businesses in your local community.

There are always few events conducted by private schools and sponsored by local business. You need to be among them, even if your kids have long gone from home.  But be decremented do not leave your "foot prints" everywhere, you will devalue yourself.

Try to arrange exclusive presentation or event in one of the local upscale Fitness Club. Invite affluent members, present them with opportunity. But, please do your homework; rehearse few times before you speak to an audience. Record and listen to your speech. Is every word is loud and clear, is it convincing? Ask your friends to critique, name your presentation well, it is extremely important.

Do not expect instant success and do not try to sell, just present opportunity and get your name out there. Collect participant's e-mail and keep updating them via e-mail. This is an age of permission marketing and cross marketing.

Today NYMEX crude quoted at $75.2 per barrel, oil prices has decline and likely will continue to do so.  Stops vegetating at home and stop waiting for a miracle, you are Real Estate PROFESSIONAL you can afford to buy a few gallons of gas, go out there meet people and have fun.  During Great Depression FDR sad: "There nothing to be fear but fear itself". We at PropertyMinder will help you with any changes necessary to make your business prosper and successful.

Boris Gruzman, CEO 

Many times I have assisted my PropertyMinder, Inc. Realtor clients in setting up chat services on their websites.  I have been using the free utility from Meebo for quite a while (almost three years) and I have found the most recent release to be nothing short of cool.

By going to www.meebo.com you can log into any of your online instant messenger accounts at Yahoo, AOL, ICQ, Google Talk, MSN and others.  This is nice, but the real gem is when you create your own Meebo account, you can create your own chat system and integrate it into your website through the use of a Widget, a small program code that will be embedded into any page on your website that allows for editing and the addition of HTML.  With the PropertyMinder AccelerAgent Real Estate Website I suggest a button on the home page for Chat and to create a specific chat page.

This widget will allow clients to type chat with you.  Many who are visiting your website may be more inclined to ask a question on a chat system as opposed to making a phone call and talking with someone.  The client may appreciate the anonymity that a chat system offers at first.  You can use the chat to try to move the conversation into the real world via phone or meeting.  The issue with chats up till now is for the most part, you had to be logged in at your computer system.  Nowadays though, Meebo offers mobile site hookups.  So from your Apple iPhone or whatever mobile 21st century technology you are using, you can log into Meebo and be available for chatting.

I have helped to integrate this into several marketing campaigns for clients and as it turns out, we pick up almost double the leads we had been getting prior to the use of chat.  As to the specifics of the marketing campaigns, those are for the PropertyMinder, Inc. TECH-MAR Clinic attendees.  The TECH-MAR Clinics show many different ways to integrate the available technologies out there into your website to maximize the return on investment of not only your funds, but your most valuable commodity, time.